Hear This Idea #67 – Guive Assadi on Whether Humanity Will Choose Its Future
02:00:07
Four Futures
- Bad futures include extinction, dystopias, and AI takeover.
- A fourth type is an "evolutionary future": unintended and unwanted outcomes from competition.
Agricultural Revolution
- The agricultural revolution produced more food but arguably worsened quality of life.
- This exemplifies an evolutionary future: no one chose it, yet it happened due to competition.
Evolutionary Future Defined
- An evolutionary future arises from competition, leading to an outcome almost no one would choose.
- Choice is key, not whether the outcome is objectively good.
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Introduction
00:00 • 2min
Will Humanity Choose Its Future
01:31 • 2min
The Future Might Not Be as Good as We Had Hoped
03:56 • 2min
The Evolution of the Future
06:10 • 3min
The Importance of Preference in the Future
09:19 • 2min
The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence
10:54 • 2min
The Evolution of Digital Minds
13:03 • 3min
The Evolution of Population Growth
15:36 • 2min
The Evolution of Population Growth
18:02 • 2min
The Importance of Dream Time
20:03 • 2min
The Evolution of Adaptive Beliefs
21:59 • 2min
The Evolution of Competitive Pressures
23:43 • 3min
The Insufficient but Sufficient Condition for an Evolutionary Future
26:50 • 2min
How to Avoid an Evolutionary Future
28:26 • 2min
The Cost of Overgrazing
30:19 • 2min
The Future of Government
32:15 • 2min
The Pros and Cons of the Federal Constitution
34:23 • 2min
The Importance of Uneven Growth in World Government
36:02 • 3min
The Evolution of World Government
38:43 • 1min
The Evolution of Property Rights
40:11 • 2min
The Importance of Collective Action in the Future
42:05 • 2min
The Future of Multilateral Coordination
44:30 • 2min
Rationalist Explanations for War
46:13 • 2min
The Problem With Fear Rationality
48:38 • 3min
The Importance of Coordination in a War
51:55 • 2min
Russianist Explanations for the Ukraine War
53:29 • 3min
The Future of Escrow
56:36 • 3min
The Evolution of C Programming Languages
59:19 • 2min
AI and the Future of Engineering
01:01:33 • 2min
The Role of Preferences in Multilateral Coordination
01:03:40 • 2min
The Conflict Between Selfish Preferences and Happiness
01:05:25 • 2min
The Importance of Preferences in Conflict
01:07:34 • 3min
The Importance of Normative Facts
01:10:13 • 2min
The Web of Belief
01:11:46 • 2min
The One-to-One Function of Moral Convergence
01:13:36 • 2min
The Convergence of Views About Population Ethics
01:15:14 • 2min
The Convergence of Preferences
01:17:06 • 3min
The Conflict Between Humans and Animals
01:19:39 • 2min
The Harmony of Regulations Across Jurisdictions
01:21:13 • 2min
The Defensive Advantage of Hunter-Gathering
01:23:22 • 3min
The Risk of Using Offense Defense Terms in a Very Intuitive Way
01:26:30 • 2min
The Advantages of Space Defense
01:28:00 • 2min
The Advantages of Colder Wars
01:30:06 • 2min
The Importance of Grabbing Space
01:32:08 • 2min
The Evolution of the Future
01:34:02 • 2min
The Importance of a Parallel Distribution
01:36:08 • 2min
The Importance of Evolutionary Equilibrium
01:38:26 • 2min
The Role of AI in the Future
01:40:19 • 2min
The Evolution of Totalitarianism
01:41:58 • 2min
The Evolution of Happiness
01:43:33 • 2min
The Importance of Preferences in Evolution
01:45:17 • 2min
Optimism in the Future
01:46:55 • 2min
The Future of Mouth Use
01:49:19 • 2min
How to Avoid an Evolutionary Future
01:50:57 • 2min
The Probability of an Evolutionary Future
01:52:46 • 2min
The Pros and Cons of Future Technology
01:55:08 • 2min
The Case for Privacy Optimism
01:56:48 • 3min
Guive Assadi is a Research Scholar at the Center for the Governance of AI. Guive’s research focuses on the conceptual clarification of, and prioritisation among, potential risks posed by emerging technologies. He holds a master’s in history from Cambridge University, and a bachelor’s from UC Berkeley.
In this episode, we discuss Guive's paper, Will Humanity Choose Its Future?.
- What is an 'evolutionary future', and would it count as an existential catastrophe?
- How did the agricultural revolution deliver a world which few people would have chosen?
- What does it mean to say that we are living in the dreamtime? Will it last?
- What competitive pressures in the future could drive the world to undesired outcomes?
- Digital minds
- Space settlement
- What measures could prevent an evolutionary future, and allow humanity to more deliberately choose its future?
- World government
- Strong global coordination
- Defensive advantage
- Should this all make us more or less hopeful about humanity's future?
- Ideas for further research
Guive's recommended reading:
- Rationalist Explanations for War by James D. Fearon
- Meditations on Moloch by Scott Alexander
- The Age of Em by Robin Hanson
- What is a Singleton? By Nick Bostrom
Other key links:
- Will Humanity Choose Its Future? by Guive Assadi
- Colder Wars by Gwern
- The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter by Joseph Henrich (and a review by Scott Alexander)