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Max Smeets, a Senior Researcher at ETH Zurich's Center for Security Studies, discusses the evolving landscape of cyber warfare. He dives into the intricacies of nation-state cyber operations, exploring how historical incidents like Stuxnet have shaped international norms. Smeets highlights the challenges elite cyber forces face and the implications of AI advancements for future cyber operations. He also addresses the rise of cybercrime, particularly ransomware, and the complexities of digital resistance movements in conflict scenarios.

In this discussion, Tom Kalil, CEO of Renaissance Philanthropy and former White House advisor, alongside economist Matt Clancy, dive into the importance of innovation prizes and the art of ‘influence without authority’. They challenge the ambition level of ultra-wealthy philanthropy and ponder whether policy entrepreneurship can be formally taught. Kalil shares insights from his experience working with Gordon Moore, while Clancy highlights the pivotal role of young professionals in revitalizing U.S. state capacity and bridging research with actionable policy.

Dr. Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Scientific Director of the Welfare Footprint Project, dives into the intricate world of animal welfare. She discusses surprising questions like whether all animals feel pain, and how various species perceive time differently. Cynthia compares the welfare of fish farming with that of poultry, revealing the complexities of animal suffering. Additionally, she highlights the importance of positive experiences in enhancing the lives of farmed animals and advocates for transparency and innovative metrics to improve welfare practices.

Dan Williams, a philosopher at the University of Sussex and associate fellow at the University of Cambridge, dives into the intricacies of belief formation and misinformation. He discusses why reasoning often fails us and likens bad ideas to ‘mind viruses.’ The conversation explores the concept of luxury beliefs as social signals and debates if AI will enhance belief accuracy or deepen misinformation. Williams also examines the effectiveness of fact-checking and the complexities of navigating a polarized marketplace of ideas, emphasizing the challenges in changing entrenched beliefs.

Tamay Besiroglu, a researcher at Epoch AI, delves into the intersection of economics and artificial intelligence. They discuss the potential for explosive economic growth fueled by AI, likening it to the Industrial Revolution. The conversation addresses the implications of job automation on human incomes and examines historical patterns in economic growth. Tamay also tackles regulatory challenges that could hinder AI progress and explores the substantial efficiency gains from AI outpacing human labor, raising questions about wealth distribution in a rapidly automated future.

Jacob Trefethen, overseeing science policy programs at Open Philanthropy, explores the urgent need for innovative health technologies, like a TB vaccine. He discusses the complexities of R&D for neglected diseases, emphasizing funding disparities and the slow drug development process. Trefethen offers no-brainer policy ideas to speed up global health advancements and questions the future role of AI in research. The conversation also highlights the challenges in diagnostics and the vital need for effective partnerships in healthcare improvements.

Elizabeth Seger is the Director of Technology Policy at Demos, a cross-party UK think tank with a program on trustworthy AI. You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/seger   In this episode we talked about open source the risks and benefits of open source AI models. We talk about: What ‘open source’ really means What is (and isn’t) open about ‘open source’ AI models How open source weights and code are useful for AI safety research How and when the costs of open sourcing frontier model weights might outweigh the benefits Analogies to ‘open sourcing nuclear designs’ and the open science movement You can get in touch through our website or on Twitter. Consider leaving us an honest review wherever you're listening to this — it's the best free way to support the show. Thanks for listening! Note that this episode was recorded before the release of Meta’s Llama 3.1 family of models. Note also that in the episode Elizabeth referenced an older version of the definition maintained by OSI (roughly version 0.0.3). The current OSI definition (0.0.8) now does a much better job of delineating between different model components.

Joe Carlsmith discusses the risks of AI systems being deceptive and misaligned during training, exploring the concept of scheming AI. The podcast covers the distinction between different types of AI models in training, the dangers of scheming behaviors, and the complexities of AI goals and motivations. It also delves into the challenges of detecting scheming AI early on, the importance of managing long-term AI motivations, and the uncertainties surrounding training AI models.

Philosopher Eric Schwitzgebel discusses topics such as the possibility of digital consciousness, the unreliability of introspection, false beliefs about choices, overlapping minds, infinite effects of our actions, and the best science fiction on digital minds and AI.

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, an associate professor at George Mason University and Deputy Director of their Biodefense Program, discusses the barriers to bioweapon development, including the misconception that they are easy to make. She explores the challenges in acquiring and manipulating pathogens, the importance of tacit knowledge, and the risks and benefits of new technologies like AI. She calls for nuanced analysis, accurate risk assessment, and measures to prevent misuse.