EdgeCast

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]

Sep 1, 2015
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Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
2
The Effects of Counterfactuals on Predictive Worlds
01:38 • 4min
3
The Relationship Between the Addiction and the Problem and the Outcome
05:20 • 2min
4
The Importance of Culture in the Airbus Crash
07:45 • 3min
5
The Importance of Precedents
10:37 • 3min
6
The Counterfactual Debate
13:33 • 2min
7
The Importance of Counterfactual Reasoning
15:43 • 3min
8
The Importance of Predicting Causal Factors
18:16 • 3min
9
The Problem With Propensities
21:06 • 3min
10
The Intimate Connections Between the Past and the Future
23:58 • 2min
11
The Black Swan Event
26:27 • 2min
12
The Counterfactuals of China
28:07 • 2min
13
The Importance of Night Novelties
29:54 • 2min
14
The Importance of Holding Analysts Accountable for Their Forecasts
32:20 • 3min
15
The Differences Between Process and Outcome
35:00 • 3min
16
The Trade-Off Between Explanation and Accuracy
38:01 • 3min
17
The Trade-Off Between Rule of Law and Use Points
41:00 • 3min
18
The Lawrence Tribe's Argument for Keeping an Explanatory Score
43:49 • 3min