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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]

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The Trade-Off Between Rule of Law and Use Points

There's an information value added. The process people are generating better explanations in that sense. So even though it's degrading their own accuracy, they are actually improving the accuracy of other people when their explanations are shared with others. We were hoping in year four to create a special category of forecasters, super-explainers, as well as super forecasters.

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