
Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]
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The Counterfactuals of China
There are, a very popular counterfactual in China right now is what the Admiral Zheng He and the fleet that the, we pushed dynasty, was it in the 14th century? I'm sorry? In the fleet you went to Africa? Yes, the fleet of into Africa. Right. But they dismantled the entire fleet and they decided they didn't want them. So again, these counterfactual, you can get people to think about ways in which China could have emerged or ways in which Islam may have made more successful intrusion into Europe. These are counterfactuals that have a lot of cultural resonance in other parts of the world.
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