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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]

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The Relationship Between the Addiction and the Problem and the Outcome

There's a very well-developed body of applied physics relevant to aviation. They can't predict that the next airplane crash will take place in three years and two days. But they can predict that if you keep an eye on PTO to at least get that fewer accidents. And by doing analysis of the causation, do provide guidance for decisions.

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