The Intimate Connections Between the Past and the Future

There's something about challenging assumptions that seems important in looking at counterfactuals. And the cognitive biases that tend to contaminate thinking about possible pasts also infiltrate our thinking about the future. People see too much likelihood in too many scenarios, and this can happen thinking backward in time as in the Cuban Missile Crisis situation. But it can also happen thinking forward in time when you think about multiple futures and scenarios. You...