
Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]
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The Lawrence Tribe's Argument for Keeping an Explanatory Score
Lawrence Tribe wrote a paper in 1971, Harvard Law Review called Trial by Mathematics. In which he looks at exactly the question you're raising and treating the legal system as a forecasting system. He says it would be a really, really bad idea to keep explicit score. It would delegitimize the system. You want vague verbiage. You want beyond a reasonable doubt. And that's kind of rhetorical shock and awe. So the legal system is not one that incentivizes or is designed to accuracy. That was my whole point.
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