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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]

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The Counterfactual Debate

"I see the counterfactual discussion as a sobering reminder of how easy it is to slip into very theory driven thinking about history," he says. "So I think it's flowing from the same underlying, the same underlying mental model that generates the counterfactually"

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