The Importance of Holding Analysts Accountable for Their Forecasts

Most policy today is unfulred in a world where a lot of large numbers does not give us a lot of leverage. But there are some... I'm trying to think of cases which aren't accidents but where there's actually social and political so that it's closer to some of your international effects. And one of the things I think that has large numbers is strikes. So there have been lots of strikes or protests in lots of places, lots of different contexts, lots of them. It may not be as large numbers as accidents, I'm not sure, but there are those kinds of social phenomenon which should be susceptible to some kind of predictive capacity. The U.S. intelligence community