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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]

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The Importance of Counterfactual Reasoning

Counterfactual reasoning can pause an effect based on counterfactual reasoning. But the disciplines that have been able to make rapid progress in understanding cause and effect are the disciplines that understand why P2 is crucial for maintaining an aircraft. They're not, but not understanding why World War I occurred right after the assassination of the orange tube or why this guy, Edo Hitler, happened to be associated with a concatenation of events mid 20th century. So I guess it's a sobering lesson.

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