Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]
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The Trade-Off Between Explanation and Accuracy
In an ideal world, good explanations and good forecasts incentivizing them should be mutually reinforced. But for reasons that I do not fully understand, the world doesn't seem to work that way here. Part of it is because of the theory of intelligence issues that actually be overly responsive to the desires of the customer. And if you mimic their accountability system in the forecasting tournament, the net effect is to degrade accuracy, but improve explanations.
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