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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]

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The Black Swan Event

There's something about challenging assumptions in all of this that seems at least to touch the social process before. The acute missile crisis counterfactual could conceivably have culminated in World War III, so it could have been or radically could have gated this into a radically different world. There are other kinds of counterfactuals that alter other landscape features of our world that are disturbing,. Like imagining that the United States doesn't successfully succeed from Britain.

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