Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class III Part II [9.1.15]
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The Effects of Counterfactuals on Predictive Worlds
Using counterfactuals to understand history and what happened in the past, there are methodologies to do that. Is that kind of methodology at all transportable into thinking about predictive worlds? There's a radical disjuncture between what's possible for an explanatory point of view and what's possible from a predictive point of view. I want to turn to a couple of things a little further on. The tragedy of Air France flight 447.
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