FiveThirtyEight Politics

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

Mar 13, 2023

01:02:08

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Episode notes

The FDA Approval of a Drug Used for Medication Abortion

01:44

The FDA Unlawfully Approved MIFA-Pristone

02:29

Is There a Bigger Error in the Most Competitive Races?

01:58

Introduction

2min

How Are You Doing?

2min

How Did It Come to That Conclusion?

2min

How to Weight Pollsters in the 2022 Cycle?

3min

Are Your Concerns About Polling Nullified?

3min

Did They Call the Race Correctly?

2min

What's the Correct Call Percentage?

2min

The Midterms

2min

Is There a Republican Bias in the Polls?

2min

10.

Is There a Bigger Error in the Most Competitive Races?

2min

11.

Is There a Long-Term Democratic Bias in the Polls?

2min

12.

House Polling Was the Most Accurate of All Polls in 2022

3min

13.

The Best Pollsters in America

2min

14.

The Most and Less Accurate Pollsters of 2022

2min

15.

Is Trafalgar Downgraded?

2min

16.

Are We Going to Ban Trafalgar Pollsters?

2min

17.

Is This a Bailout or Not?

3min

18.

What's New Again?

2min

19.

Are Voters Thinking About Abortion With the Midterms in the Rearview Mirror?

2min

20.

Are Anti-Abortion Advocates Changing Their Approaches?

2min

21.

The Debate Over Abortion Rights in the U.S.

2min

22.

What Would Fly With Americans if There Was an Abortion Ban?

3min

23.

Dobs Decision - What's the Difference Between Driving and Driving?

5min

24.

Are Blue States Making It Easier to Get an Abortion?

3min

25.

What's Happening in Some Red States in the Anti-Abortion Movement?

4min

26.

The FDA Approval of a Drug Used for Medication Abortion

2min

27.

The FDA Unlawfully Approved MIFA-Pristone

2min

Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms.

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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

The FDA Approval of a Drug Used for Medication Abortion

The FDA Unlawfully Approved MIFA-Pristone

Is There a Bigger Error in the Most Competitive Races?

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