2min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

What's the Correct Call Percentage?

Only 72% of polls, quote unquote, called the winner of the election correctly this year. The kind of average overall since 1998 is 78%. If you have a poll showing a one point lead that is well within the margin of error, that's essentially a toss up. And so I also had a chart in my article that shows that basically correct call percentage is just a function of how close the polls are.

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