2min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

Is There a Bigger Error in the Most Competitive Races?

In some districts, you don't have a candidate from both parties. That probably gave Republicans about a point or so of extra margin in the actual popular vote that we don't try to correct for. The narrative of a huge systematic pro-R bias is just not really true. We think people would actually do the work to prove that their thesis is true, but increasingly people don't.

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