2min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

Did They Call the Race Correctly?

This was the worst cycle since 1998, meaning that the polls did worse in terms of calling the winner than in any other cycle since 1998. How should we explain that conflict? It seems like a weird coincidence that both things would be true in the same year. I think after 2020, people were too worried about the future of polls and maybe after 2022, you know, people will be too confident in the future of pollsters.

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