2min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

The Most and Less Accurate Pollsters of 2022

Some notable pollsters get downgraded in this cycle of our pollster ratings. Trafalgar Group had an average error of 5.3 points and they were biased toward Republicans by about five points as well. They were really kind of contributing to the red wave narrative that didn't end up happening. So yeah, but they are by far not alone in terms of being a kind of conservative affiliated pollster that kind of misjudged the red wave that wasn't.

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