3min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

How to Weight Pollsters in the 2022 Cycle?

Polls of larger geographic areas tend to be better than those higher up the ballot. Overall polling is still very accurate, despite everybody wanting to throw up their hands about it after 2020 election. But you said something that might tip people off a little bit, which is that you downweighted pollsters that were particularly prolific.

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