The Safety of Work Ep. 35 What is the relationship between leading and lagging indicators?
Jul 12, 2020
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Stock Market Analogy
- Drew Ray uses the stock market as an analogy to illustrate the futility of using past data to predict future performance.
- He points out that knowing past stock movements and explanations is useless for predicting future movements.
Indicators, Not Measures
- There's no such thing as a direct measure of safety; everything we use are indicators.
- Leading and lagging indicators represent relationships between different measurements, not measurements of past or future safety.
The Paradox of Leading Indicators
- If a leading indicator truly predicts an accident, people will act on it, preventing the accident.
- This makes the indicator a poor predictor because the predicted accident doesn't occur.