189. Daniel Kahneman — Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

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Introduction

00:00 • 2min

2

One Drem Is Spelled W O N D R I U M Dot Com Slash Shermer Again

02:04 • 5min

3

Why Do People Don't Talk to Each Other?

07:32 • 2min

4

I Believe in Results, You Have to Believe It

09:30 • 3min

5

Wherever There Is Judgment, There Is Noise

12:49 • 2min

6

The Measure of Inaccuracy

14:28 • 2min

7

The Difference Between Free and Free by Averaging

16:54 • 2min

8

The Difference Between Individual Differences and Systemic Errors in Judgment

18:29 • 5min

9

How to Think and Solve Problems With Brilliant Courses

23:24 • 4min

10

Predicting Causality in the Social Science

27:08 • 2min

11

The Most Important Source of Noise

28:51 • 3min

12

The Big Five Personality Dimensions

32:08 • 2min

13

The Main Source of Noise

33:44 • 3min

14

Averaging Reduces Noise

36:22 • 2min

15

Averaging Eliminates Noise With Certainty

38:47 • 2min

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Is There a Bias in Sentencing?

41:12 • 3min

17

Is There a Source of Error?

44:29 • 3min

18

The Problem With the Guidelines of Sentencing Guidelines

47:26 • 3min

19

What's the Point of Writing a Book?

50:14 • 3min

20

How to Reduce the Noise in a Mental Hospital

52:59 • 2min

21

Do You Think You Are a Psychopath?

55:13 • 3min

22

How to Train Systems for Adjusting for Noise

58:24 • 2min

23

Decision Hygiene - How to Avoid Intuitive Errors

01:00:02 • 3min

24

Do You Have a Noise Problem in Your Hiring Process?

01:03:30 • 2min

25

Google Is Already Doing a Lot to Get Rid of His Noise

01:05:08 • 2min

26

How Much Noise Do We Have?

01:06:50 • 2min

27

How to Control for the Noise in Governments

01:08:48 • 3min

28

How to Be a Better Super Forecaster

01:11:33 • 2min

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How to Be a Good Super Forecaster

01:13:10 • 2min

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I Think It's Primarily in Organizations, and I'm Relatively Optimistic That Organizations Can Improve Themselves

01:15:29 • 2min

31

What Are We Going to Do About It?

01:17:38 • 2min

32

We're on the Threat of the Moment

01:19:13 • 2min

33

The Difference Between Empirical Truths and Religious Truths

01:21:22 • 2min

34

The Judication Problem Is a Deep One

01:22:53 • 2min

35

Is Everyone Susceptible to Judgment?

01:24:43 • 3min

36

Is There a Difference Between Free Will and Determinism?

01:28:09 • 2min

37

The Problem of Free Will Isn't Especially Interesting

01:29:54 • 2min

38

Are You 87? What's Coming Next?

01:31:53 • 3min

39

Is There a Connection to Individual Autonomy?

01:34:48 • 3min

40

Are You a Happy Person?

01:38:11 • 3min