Tetlock famously said that experts are no better than the chimpanze with the dart board. When you get new evidence, you're supposed to change your mind - what do you do? You have a discussion on expert judgment and super forecasting. So if you agree with those kinds of statements, that that's a kind of a cognitive huoristic make you a better super forecaster.
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients. Now imagine that the same doctor making a different decision depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. This is an example of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
Shermer speaks with Nobel Prize winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman about the detrimental effects of noise and what we can do to reduce both noise and bias, and make better decisions in: medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection.