Some judges, they really hate repeat offenders, and others are more tolerant. I hear by the tose big five personality dimensions, i'm looking for a deeper causal mechanism that would drive that ils. Use another example. Maybe conservatives tend to favor the broken windows theory of crime. This is a a zone in which you won't get caught for breaking small laws, so you can break larger laws. So a conservative mate may look at that and go, all right, i'm going to stop. I'm going to draw the line sooner. Well, certainly you know that'
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients. Now imagine that the same doctor making a different decision depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. This is an example of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.
Shermer speaks with Nobel Prize winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman about the detrimental effects of noise and what we can do to reduce both noise and bias, and make better decisions in: medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection.