How to Be a Good Super Forecaster

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Super forecasters are less noisy, and they become less noisy individually. There is less noise in between their judgments and within their judg than is the case for less adept forecasters. Here are some statements that you should disagree with if you want to be a good super forecaster. Change, in your mind, is a sign of weakness. You don't begin. In politics, you're called iflopper if you change your mind, or a liar. It's important to persevere in your beliefs, even when the evidence is brought to bear against them. Events unfold according to god's plan. Everything happens for a reason. There are no accidents or coincidences. The team we

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients. Now imagine that the same doctor making a different decision depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. This is an example of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

Shermer speaks with Nobel Prize winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman about the detrimental effects of noise and what we can do to reduce both noise and bias, and make better decisions in: medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection.