189. Daniel Kahneman — Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
The Michael Shermer Show
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How to Be a Good Super Forecaster
Super forecasters are less noisy, and they become less noisy individually. There is less noise in between their judgments and within their judg than is the case for less adept forecasters. Here are some statements that you should disagree with if you want to be a good super forecaster. Change, in your mind, is a sign of weakness. You don't begin. In politics, you're called iflopper if you change your mind, or a liar. It's important to persevere in your beliefs, even when the evidence is brought to bear against them. Events unfold according to god's plan. Everything happens for a reason. There are no accidents or coincidences. The team we
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