The Difference Between Individual Differences and Systemic Errors in Judgment

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In his new book, David Frum explores the role of cognitive biases in human judgment. He argues that we are natural born duellists and should be able to reign in our mindtak. But he says it's dangerous for people to reify their thoughts as if they're really in their head.

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients. Now imagine that the same doctor making a different decision depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. This is an example of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

Shermer speaks with Nobel Prize winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman about the detrimental effects of noise and what we can do to reduce both noise and bias, and make better decisions in: medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection.