

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part II [8.17.15]
Aug 17, 2015
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
The Failure of the Intelligence Community in Iraq W&D
02:13 • 6min
The Reflexivity of Predictions
07:51 • 2min
The Counterfactual Problem With Predictions
10:04 • 4min
The Ethno-Nationalist Hedgehog
13:41 • 3min
The Tension Between Hedgehog and Fox Forecasting
16:22 • 2min
The Importance of Time-Side in Decision Making
18:01 • 2min
The Importance of Probability in Policy Making
19:59 • 4min
The Limits of Publicless Degree-Sening
23:30 • 3min
The Granularity of Predictions
26:12 • 2min
The Probability of a Change in Probability
28:00 • 3min
The Difference Between Pseudo Diagnostic and Subtly Diagnostic Information
30:33 • 4min
The Differences Between Hedgehogs and Foxes
34:32 • 4min
The Evolution of Hedgehogs
38:59 • 3min
The Importance of Diversity in Forecasting
42:19 • 3min