The Failure of the Intelligence Community in Iraq W&D

I think virtually every intelligence agency pre-invasion did think that Saddam did have some kind of active weapon and mass destruction program. I would ask you to entertain the following counterfactual: If the U.S. intelligence community had institutionalized forecasting tournaments, would they have been more reticent about ever using the term slam dunk? It is an interesting question of how punitive you want to be. The breaks that were supposed to be there on the inference process weren't working. They didn't use a multi-trillion dollar tool that could have saved tens of thousands of lives.