Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part II [8.17.15]
EdgeCast
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The Differences Between Hedgehogs and Foxes
I think that maybe there's not a big dissonance that's between the story and the prediction. In some ways, story is also ideology. It's more that hedgehogs can only hold one ideology and then add it once while foxes can down south lots of ideologies. But if you're very, very tolerant of a lot of false positive predictions, you might want to go with the hedgehog.
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