Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part II [8.17.15]
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The Probability of a Change in Probability
In the super-forecasters are very well-practiced belief updaters. You do a lot better if you're closer to the truth early on because it's accumulated a prior score across time. So is there any weighting of being more probabilistically right early versus later? Yes. Are you rewarded enough? That's an interesting question.
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