Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part II [8.17.15]
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The Tension Between Hedgehog and Fox Forecasting
I like to think of forecasting tournaments as intellectual ecosystems that require different types of creatures existing in reciprocal patterns of interdependence. The foxes are almost parasitic in some ways on hedgehogs. They use hedgehog ideas and they are eclectic and they often combine. So I think there is a complementarity. Just as a complementarity between Tom and Bill and question generation and answer generation forecasting tournaments.
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