Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part II [8.17.15]
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The Difference Between Pseudo Diagnostic and Subtly Diagnostic Information
The probability of Putin being the next president of Russia in 2012 is 99%. The smart money, so to speak, would be pretty much monotonic toward 1.0. And then there's a question lower down of relevance to the Eurozone was whether Mario Monti would vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before a certain target date. That was a really wickedly difficult question.
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