The Reflexivity of Predictions

The probability is not on its own decent basis for a decision, the simple reason that there are things like a precautionary principle. What was the point of the supergun, if they didn't possess WMD? Why would you invest in this hugely expensive and complicated gun, which they were trying to build, only to deliver conventional ballistics? They may have had some ultimate intention of restarting their chemical weapons program. Back was pretty resource-starved, and they were being watched a lot and harassed a lot, and it was difficult for them to do very much. I think the correct approach to that is what I ARPA has done, which is to pose these as conditional.