The Importance of Probability in Policy Making

There is not a huge demand among decision makers for internal forecasting tournaments, says Bob Greene. What would be required for effective policy making? For the decision making to form the threshold in terms of probability - when the probability exceeds that much they will move,. That is nowhere inside the culture. So for these things to work this is what is going to be needed. If you have to get it pushing toward odds he wouldn't say he would probably be a pre-to-one as a good bet.