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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part II [8.17.15]

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The Importance of Time-Side in Decision Making

There is no demand, I think, but there is a mental perfect. People in positions of power on average have been luckier than average. So they made a lot of choices along the way to become a president. Some of which were distributed by the best advisors and they were right and their advisors were wrong. But that is not what is going to happen to you.

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