The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish #6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
92 snips
Dec 8, 2015 
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We Are All Forecasters
- We are all forecasters because making decisions implies predicting consequences.
- Explicit predictions improve decision-making compared to implicit ones.
Good Judgment Project
- The Good Judgment Project, a forecasting tournament by IARPA, aimed to improve intelligence analysis.
- Tetlock's team won by using diverse methods and identifying "superforecasters."
Skill vs. Luck in Forecasting
- Superforecasters aren't just lucky; their accuracy persists over time, unlike random chance.
- A 70/30 skill-to-luck ratio exists in geopolitical and geoeconomic predictions.