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#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
Are There Certain Types of Questions to Avoid in Roulette?
What would happen if you had two forecasters who have great track records, and then their divergent on the really divergent on an opinion or a forecast? Yes, there will be many questions in te aca tournament. Thereare any quastens in life in which there is a massive amount of irreducible uncertainty,. If you want to be a good forecastor you don't spend very much, i working on rulet wheel lie type problems.
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