#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
00:00
Why Organizations Aren't Getting Better at Forecasting Tournaments
There's a real mixture of psychological and political forces that interact to create a lot of resistance to forecasting tournaments. People at the top of the status hierarchy are not very enthusiastic about using them. Even open minded, high status people are going to be reluctant to do this because it's going to look like a queer, damaging move. There's another oth, a lot of other factors in play, being that people don't pay attention to the outside view.
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