How to Make the Best Probability Estimates From Super Forcasts

We recruited thousands of forecasters and explored a number of different techniques for eliciting the best possible probability estimates from those forecasters. And they really went to town. Thy thy did a phenomenally good jobtey blew the ceiling off all the performance expectations that orapa had for what was possible. The skale luck ratio seems to be about 70 30, ah. So you're not observing a great deal of toward the mean among super forecasters, but there inevitably is some regression toward themean among the top performers. They date, super forecasters a differ from ordinary mortals in a host of ways. It's because they are willing to make this commitment, thi ac of faith that