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#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
The Role of Intuition in Forecasting
There are different schools of thought about the value of intuition. And super forecast or skepticism even extends to their forecasting successes. I'm not ruling out the possibility that there are a super forecast which wo do rely on intuition. But the problems that we're dealing with in real world are differrent from the sorts of problems where brilliant intuition has been demonstrated.
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