#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
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How Did the Good Judgment Project Come to an End?
iarpa put a lot of emphasis on synthesizing divers views into aggregate forecasts. When iorpa started this whole exercise, they thought it would be really hard to do better than the unweighted average of a group of control group forecasters. And our super forecastings exceeded at t performance bench marked quite substantially each year of the tournament. They did so well that iarpa essentially suspended the tournament after two years.
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