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#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
Are We a Lucky Could't?
Making people perfect basian belief oupdaters is something that no one has achieved yet. Super forecasters listened to each other quite carefully, and can disagree diplomatically about what lessons they should draw from particular forecasting failures,. Even forecasting successesan. People don't normally look a gift gift horse in the mouth, saytheyw when they're right. They want to take credit for it.
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