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4min chapter
#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
Keeping Score in Forecasting
i danny coniman is famous for saying that he's studied biases his whole life. So how does this 50 minute training exercise come in and help people? One of the keys to keeping track of forecasting and your ability to predict is kind of a keeping score. Do you think it takes a certain type of person to want to keep score? Even open minded 61 year olds are not going to be very enthusiastic about this.
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