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#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish
Is It Easier to Predict Shorter Time Ranges?
In some ways, it's eay easier to predict where the stock market is going to be up or down ten years from now, relative to now, than it is to morrow. Probablistic foresight is betterr in shorter time ranges. The analogy to vision would be ght, i's easier to see the snell and iar yr lose to iineso far from it.
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