The Probability of Divorce

For average forecasters who are randomly assigned to an experimental condition in which they get conom and style be biasing exercises, the improvement is in the vicinity of ten per cent. And that's a big effect when you consider retegulat improvement across an entire year of forecasting. So whatha when you took average people and you started giving them,. i think i remember this, that you started given them a course in probability. What did that consist of? This 50 minute training exercise some basic ideas about heristics and biases and how to check biases. Start with the outside and work inside. Bat bad bet.