The Bayesian Conspiracy

177 – Decision Trees and Butlerian Jihads with Matt Freeman

Dec 14, 2022

02:33:32

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Highlights

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Episode notes

The Probability of Utility Evaluations for Money

03:09

Do Decision Trees Increase or Reduce Variance in Life Outcomes?

01:31

Is There More Fun Way?

02:15

Introduction

3min

The Guild of the Rose - When Would You Want This?

2min

When to Use Martial Arts?

2min

How to Build a Decision Tree

5min

The Probability of Utility Evaluations for Money

3min

Using the Decision Tree to Make a Decision

2min

How Long Did It Take You to Make This Decision Tree?

2min

Do You Think It's Net Good or Net Bad for Society?

2min

What's the Worst Advice?

2min

10.

Is Your Subconscious Making All These Calculations?

2min

11.

You Know, You've Been the Possible Outcome

3min

12.

Are You Going to Have Kids?

2min

13.

Do Your Best to Make Better Decisions, Right?

2min

14.

Compounding Returns on Hard Decisions

2min

15.

How Do You Do the Number Format Real Quick?

3min

16.

Are You Making a Decision Tree?

3min

17.

Do You Think Everyone Should Share a Decision Tree?

4min

18.

Having a Gut Level Sense of Odds

2min

19.

Do You Think an Ant Is Bigger Than 256,000?

2min

20.

Do Decision Trees Increase or Reduce Variance in Life Outcomes?

2min

21.

Don't Take Big Risks, You're Taking a Risk.

4min

22.

The Number One Driver of Property Prices in America

5min

23.

The Art of Building a Decision Tree

6min

24.

You Keep Using Utility, but It's in Such a Different Way Than I'm Used to Hearing It

4min

25.

Giving to Affect the Charities?

3min

26.

You Don't Let Them Go First, but You Still Are Orderly

3min

27.

Is It Bad to Kill One Person for a Million Dollars to Save a Thousand People?

2min

28.

The Decision Tree Is Not a Decision Tree

3min

29.

Is It a Trolley Problem?

2min

30.

The Trolley Problem?

2min

31.

Is San Bankman Freed an Idiot?

2min

32.

Is It a Quantum 51% Probability, Not Deterministic?

3min

33.

Are You a Bad Person and You Should Feel Bad?

2min

34.

The Guild of the Rose

4min

35.

Is It a Commitment?

3min

36.

The Guild of the Rose

2min

37.

Chat GPT Three - What Did I Miss?

2min

38.

Is GPT-3 Free?

2min

39.

How to Make an HTTP HTTP Request in JavaScript

3min

40.

How to Get GPT to Stop Liesing to You

3min

41.

Is It a Force Multiplyer for Sex Work?

3min

42.

The Basing Conspiracy Podcast

2min

43.

Is Cicero Modeling Human Minds?

2min

44.

Cicero 3.0

2min

45.

AI Just Happened Faster Than We Thought

2min

46.

Is AGI Artificial General Intelligence?

2min

47.

Dolly Art

3min

48.

The Top Posts of All Time

3min

49.

Do You Think We Should Have a Butlerian Jihad?

2min

50.

We're at 10 Billion, Aren't We?

2min

51.

How Cool Will AI Alignment Be?

2min

52.

Is There a Counterfactual?

3min

53.

What Is Net Worth?

1min

54.

The Early Singularity

3min

55.

Buying a House Is Not Worth a Hit

3min

56.

Is There More Fun Way?

2min

57.

Sense Data Isn't Going to Replace Humans

2min

58.

AI Superpowers - What Are They?

2min

59.

Is There a Midwestern Face?

3min

Matt Freeman gives a primer in how to uses Bayesian decision making in normal life, via decision trees. We also discuss utilitarianism, the Guild of the Rose, and recent AI advances. We are now in the early singularity. Guild of … Continue reading →