

The Bayesian Conspiracy
The Bayesian Conspiracy
A conversational podcast for aspiring rationalists.
Episodes
Mentioned books

Aug 20, 2025 • 1h 23min
244 – How and Why to Form a Church, with Andrew Willsen
Andrew Willsen tells us how incorporating as a church allows you to navigate modernity, and gives us the basic steps to doing so.
LINKS
Andrew’s church substack – The Church of the Infinite Game
To incorporate in CA file ARTS-PB-501(c)(3)
CA Form FTB3500 booklet
IRS document 1828 (see also the summary)
Nonprofit Compliance Checklist
The Ethical Cult Checklist
AI Anxiety Dinners
Eneasz’s follow-up post to Monogamy Police
Paid Bonus content for the week – Andrew on the End of Capitalism (patreon, substack)
Paid Bonus content for the week – Mononormativity follow-up (patreon, substack)
00:00:05 – Take Me To Church
01:09:35 – Guild of the Rose
01:11:19 – Feedback & Follow-up on Monogamy Police
01:21:28 – Thank the Supporter!
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus, returning this summer

Aug 14, 2025 • 13min
Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast
Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense.
Map of all the fruitfly neurons

Aug 6, 2025 • 1h 54min
243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot
Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy.
LINKS
Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Police
His blog, Living Within Reason
The original tweets – monogamy vs charity
Aella’s Chattel Childhood post
The Mind Killer
Our Groceries
Paid Bonus content for the week – Mononormativity follow-up (patreon, substack)
00:00:05 – The Monogamy Police
01:51:46 – Guild of the Rose
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus, returning this summer

Aug 4, 2025 • 17min
Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling
Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the precursor to glowfic!)

Jul 23, 2025 • 1h 33min
242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025
Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards.
LINKS
Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter and at his Substack
A reddit history of what convinced Trace he couldn’t remain Mormon
The Center for Educational Progress
Our previous episode with Trace were we discuss the modern secular religion of Social Justice Progressivism
Love Stays Loved by Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg (Swimmer963)
00:00:21 – Trace Live at Manifest
00:42:31 – Follow-up with Trace
01:31:33 – Guild of the Rose
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus, returning this summer

Jul 22, 2025 • 13min
Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem
Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.

Jul 11, 2025 • 36min
Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans
Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, the story they wrote, and the meeting between human and machine in Dolores Park.
LINKS
Larissa’s Post detailing the whole event – Primary Hope
The AI’s story – Resonance
AI Village
Short Stories – Maneki Neko, and Cat Pictures Please
Kevin Roose was hated by the AIs
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

Jul 9, 2025 • 1h 52min
241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira
Liron Shapira debates AI luminaries and public intellectuals on the imminent possibility of human extinction. Let’s get on the P(Doom) Train.
LINKS
Doom Debates on YouTube
Doom Debates podcast
Most Watched Debate – Mike Israetel
Liron’s current favorite debate – David Duvenaud
MATS program for people that want to get involved (ML Alignment & Theory Scholars)
How to Live Well with High P(Doom)
The ancient TBC episode on AlphaGo
Other Best-Of episodes of The Bayesian Conspiracy
“Don’t Eat Honey” by Bentham’s Bulldog
Also – If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies preorders here, or at Amazon.
00:00:05 – Doom Debates
01:29:34 – A Human Is Worth 7 Bees
01:37:20 – Guild of the Rose
01:49:24 – Thank the Supporter!
Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack
Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?
We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out.
Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast
LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode:
on hiatus, returning this summer

Jun 25, 2025 • 58min
240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg
Join Ben Pace, owner of Science is Weird, known for his innovative education models; Brandon Hendrickson, a 2023 book contest winner; and Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg, a resilient advocate working for Lightcone after facing high P(Doom). They discuss living well amid existential threats, the role of mortality in meaningful living, and the importance of community connections. The conversation dives into balancing joy and creativity with life's uncertainties while addressing how personal choices can shape our responses to potential doom.

Jun 14, 2025 • 16min
Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music
David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the lyrics to the main song we discuss (Silicon Soul) here!
Check out the Spotify playlist or the Youtube playlist
He’s also one of the cofounders of the Guild of the Rose! Check them out and our initial episode with him and Alex.