The Bayesian Conspiracy

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer. LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWho William’s blog, “As Our Days” ACX Non-Book Review 2025 Winners Post Just HPMOR substack, and Spotify playlist Why the AI Water Issue Has Nothing to Do With Water (and audio version here, again from AskWho) Money is Life Eneasz’s post on InkHaven Inkhaven.Blog – apply today! Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter (audio, video), Full Show Video 00:04:33 – Announcements & Feedback 00:27:24 – Eneasz’s Podcast Meta-Worries 00:28:21 – HPMOR Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer 01:28:17 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:18 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

A lively breakdown of Ben Pace’s seven vices of rationalists, treating useful traits turned toxic. Short takes on contrarianism, pedantry, over-explaining, social obliviousness, and stubbornness. Discussion of trust, when critique kills momentum, and real-world tradeoffs. Reflections on writing practice, show format changes, and community fundraising highlights.

A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year.

A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here. Merry Xmas!

Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWrong survey and Lighthaven’s fundraising event. See the links below for more details. LINKS The LessWrong survey will remain open from now until at least January 7th, 2026. Lighthaven is once again seeking support. If you’re inclined to help, check out all of the details here. Related, our interview with Oliver from last year. Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch) We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

A lively tour of Yudkowsky's Twelve Virtues, unpacking curiosity, relinquishment, lightness, and evenness. They explore argument as testing, empiricism, simplicity, humility, and precision. Scholarship, flow-like “the void,” and cooperation under uncertainty also feature. Personal reflections and a pitch for the Guild of the Rose round out the conversation.

Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doofcast every Friday and they cover movies, books, and TV shows. Matt and Scott’s analysis podcasts have made me love stories even more and have equipped me with tools to enhance my ability to think more deeply about the stories I consume and enjoy them even more. My hope is that this meta-conversation will encourage anyone who hasn’t listened to the Doofcast or anything else Doof! Media has put out to give it a shot and see what you’ve been missing out on. Unfortunately, we were unable to coordinate a time for Matt’s cohost Scott to join us so hopefully I did an ok job making this entertaining and fun with only one expert guest. Shoutout to Skyler Crossman, the Less Wrong community organizer extraordinaire! LINKS Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts! The Magnus Archives Bob Ross on AI Slop East Coast Mega Meetup 00:00:05 – Diving into stories 01:47:42 – Interlude with Eneasz about the East Coast Mega Meetup! 01:52:31 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch) We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background task for him – he’s taken real steps to get involved with and improve his community and you can too! He’s here to tell us about the things he’s done and give some guidance on how you all can get involved and help make your community more like the place you’d want to live. Colorado Reagan Club An article he wrote making the case why you should join An article about Vacancy Committees

While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about stoic philosophy, the traps of getting too entrenched in any philosophical framework, and some of the ingredients of a happy life. LINKS It’s Okay to Feel Bad for a Bit Doof! Media, the home of Matt’s other podcasts! Flanagan’s Wake 00:00:05 – Matt Freeman 01:55:23 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? (also merch) We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon) and we spend about the first half talking about If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies. LINKS Max’s first book, Crystal Society Eneasz’s audiobook of about the first two thirds of the first book And the official audiobooks page Flash fiction contest that Eneasz mentioned Max’s post on Anthropic Reasoning Red Heart If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies 00:00:05 – Max Harms 01:28:53 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:00 – Miscellanea 01:40:58 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon