The Bayesian Conspiracy

We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Eneasz can’t get over the abandonment of epistemics. This is Part 2, see the previous episode (here) for Part 1. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter Paid Bonus content for the week – Pressed Into The Navy (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – The trap 01:19:00 – Guild of the Rose 01:20:16 – Listener Feedback/Corrections & Announcements 01:24:31 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer

Thomas Ambrose, a long-time rationalist from Denver, shares his inspiring journey of converting to Christianity. He dives into the complexities of navigating morality, examining how childhood beliefs shaped his views. The conversation touches upon the dynamics of personal versus institutional faith and the philosophical nature of goodness and existence. Ambrose intriguingly discusses the evolving ethics of sexuality and challenges conventional thoughts on societal values, making for a thought-provoking exploration of belief and identity.

Eneasz and Liam discuss Scott Alexander’s post “Twilight of the Edgelords,” an exploration of Truth, Morality, and how one balances love of truth vs not destabilizing the world economy and political regime. CORRECTION: Scott did make an explicitly clear pro Kamala post LINKS Scott Alexander’s Twilight of the Edgelords Liam & Waweru’s fiction & philosophy podcast – 2 Rash 2 Unadvised Paid Bonus content for the week – Liam on Them, 2:40 on Deontology, Steven on Black Mirror and Formula 1 also mentioned: Liam’s previous Gender Explained (substack and patreon) Eneasz’s post Does The Omelas Kid Have An Obligation To Suffer? Eneasz & Matt analyze Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (and coming soon: Steven & Brian on Blindsight) The Rationalist Summer Trifecta: Manifest 2025 LessOnline 2025 VibeCamp 2025 00:00:05 – Twilight of the Edgelords 01:28:04 – Eneasz & Steven catch-up 01:36:48 – Guild of the Rose 01:39:42 – Rationalist Summer Trifecta 02:21:34 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer

Wes Fenza and Jen Kesteloot join us to talk about whether there’s significant personality differences between men and women, and what (if anything) we should do about that. LINKS Wes’s post Men and Women are Not That Different Jacob’s quoted post Navigation By Moonlight Eneasz’s related post How To Believe False Things Clearer Thinking’s Gender Continuum Test The Mind Killer – biweekly news podcast via rationalists Ghibli Eve Theory of Consciousness 00:00:05 – Gender Differences 02:20:31 – Guild of the Rose 02:21:34 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer

We speak to Nick Allardice, President & CEO of GiveDirectly. Afterwards Steven and Eneasz get wrapped up talking about community altruism for a bit. LINKS Give Directly GiveDirectly Tech Innovation Fact Sheet 00:00:05 – Give Directly with Nick Allardice 01:12:19 – Steven & Eneasz chat about Community Altruism 01:49:35 – Guild of the Rose 01:51:36 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: None Next Sequence Posts: None  

Dave Kasten joins us to discuss how AI is being discussed in the US government and gives a rather inspiring and hopeful take. LINKS Narrow Path Center for AI Policy Dave Kasten’s Essay on the Essay Meta on his Substack Prospective donors for CAIP can donate here and potential major donors ($5k+) encouraged to email Jason at jason@aipolicy.us TBC episode 202 – we talk with the Center for AI Policy Kickstarter link for Thomas Eliot’s new game: The Singularity Will Happen In Less Than A Year 00:00:05 – AI Policy in D.C. 01:20:07 – Fundraising for CAIP and The Singularity Will Happen in Less Than a Year 01:24:28 – Guild of the Rose 01:29:16 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: None Next Sequence Posts: None

The podcast highlights an initiative by the White House urging public feedback on AI safety. It discusses the vital role of citizen participation in shaping AI governance. Listeners are encouraged to voice their opinions, stressing that individual contributions can significantly influence policy more than traditional voting methods. Engaging in these discussions is portrayed as crucial for ensuring AI developments align with the public interest.

John Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change. LINKS The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change John Bennett’s LinkedIn Friedman’s “Capitalism and Freedom” Preface Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog “Every Bay Area Walled Compound” Trace on the FAA hiring scandal What We Owe the Future (Will MacAskill) Center for AI Policy TBC episode 202 – we talk with the Center for AI Policy Horizon Institute for Public Service Fellowships Dear Grom and Other Stories  Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one’s happening near you? Fill this out! 00:00:05 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change 01:03:20 – HPMOR 10 year anniversary reminder 01:06:10 – Guild of the Rose 01:09:14 – Less Wrong Posts 01:29:04 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: Decoherence The So-Called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle Next Sequence Posts: none

Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one’s happening near you? Fill this out!

Gene Smith on polygenic screening; gene editing to give our children the happiest, healthiest, best lives they can live; and if we can do this in adults as well. Plus how this will interface with the AI future.   LINKS How To Make Super Babies How to have Polygenically Screened Children Significantly Enhancing Adult Intelligence With Gene Editing May Be Possible Meiosis is all you need Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies Gwern on Embryo Selection Being Ladylike for Autistic Women Bayes Blast Dear Grom and Other Stories  Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one’s happening near you? Fill this out! 00:00:05 – Super babies! 01:35:34 – HPMOR 10 year anniversary! 01:37:51 – Guild of the Rose 01:39:05 – Steven’s follow-up on Being Ladylike for Autistic Women 01:46:10 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: none Next Sequence Posts: Decoherence The So-Called Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle