The Bayesian Conspiracy

The Bayesian Conspiracy
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Sep 17, 2025 • 1h 43min

246 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 1

In this engaging discussion, Matt Freeman, a founder of The Guild of the Rose and a frequent commentator on AI, dives into thought-provoking themes from Nostalgebraist’s "The Void." They contemplate the nature of conversations with AI like ChatGPT, questioning who, or what, we’re really engaging with. The conversation also touches on the ethics and consciousness of AI, exploring the emotional resonance of language models versus human experiences, and the philosophical implications of AI interactions. Expect a blend of humor, deep insights, and a sprinkle of anime influence!
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Sep 17, 2025 • 8sec

pre246 note

Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho
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Sep 3, 2025 • 1h 34min

245 – AI Welfare, with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell of Eleos

Do we need to be concerned for the welfare of AIs today? What about the near future? Eleos AI Research is asking exactly that. LINKS Eleos AI Research People for the Ethical Treatment of Reinforcement Learners Bees Can’t Suffer? Lena, by qntm When AI Seems Conscious Experience Machines, Rob’s substack The War on General Computation WaPo on Blake Lemoine Discordianism Twitter for: Eleos, Rob Long, Rosie Campbell Apply for InkHaven 00:00:05 – AI Welfare 01:22:33 – InkHaven 01:27:49 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:55 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
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Aug 20, 2025 • 1h 23min

244 – How and Why to Form a Church, with Andrew Willsen

Andrew Willsen tells us how incorporating as a church allows you to navigate modernity, and gives us the basic steps to doing so. LINKS Andrew’s church substack – The Church of the Infinite Game To incorporate in CA file ARTS-PB-501(c)(3) CA Form FTB3500 booklet IRS document 1828 (see also the summary) Nonprofit Compliance Checklist The Ethical Cult Checklist AI Anxiety Dinners Eneasz’s follow-up post to Monogamy Police Paid Bonus content for the week – Andrew on the End of Capitalism (patreon, substack) Paid Bonus content for the week – Mononormativity follow-up (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – Take Me To Church 01:09:35 – Guild of the Rose 01:11:19 – Feedback & Follow-up on Monogamy Police 01:21:28 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
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Aug 14, 2025 • 13min

Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast

Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense. Map of all the fruitfly neurons
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Aug 6, 2025 • 1h 54min

243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot

Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy. LINKS Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Police His blog, Living Within Reason The original tweets – monogamy vs charity Aella’s Chattel Childhood post The Mind Killer Our Groceries Paid Bonus content for the week – Mononormativity follow-up (patreon, substack) 00:00:05 – The Monogamy Police 01:51:46 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
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Aug 4, 2025 • 17min

Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling

Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the precursor to glowfic!)
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Jul 23, 2025 • 1h 33min

242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025

Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards. LINKS Tracing Woodgrains on Twitter and at his Substack A reddit history of what convinced Trace he couldn’t remain Mormon The Center for Educational Progress Our previous episode with Trace were we discuss the modern secular religion of Social Justice Progressivism Love Stays Loved by Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg (Swimmer963) 00:00:21 – Trace Live at Manifest 00:42:31 – Follow-up with Trace 01:31:33 – Guild of the Rose Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. Rationality: From AI to Zombies, The Podcast LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning this summer
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Jul 22, 2025 • 13min

Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem

Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCamp.
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Jul 11, 2025 • 36min

Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans

Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, the story they wrote, and the meeting between human and machine in Dolores Park. LINKS Larissa’s Post detailing the whole event – Primary Hope The AI’s story – Resonance AI Village Short Stories – Maneki Neko, and Cat Pictures Please Kevin Roose was hated by the AIs Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong?

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