#1007
Mentioned in 41 episodes
Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
Book • 2015
In this book, Tetlock and Gardner present the results of the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that identified a small group of 'superforecasters' who are exceptionally good at predicting future events.
The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities.
The authors explain that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods but involves gathering evidence from various sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.
The book uses stories of forecasting successes and failures, as well as interviews with high-level decision makers, to illustrate these principles and demonstrate how anyone can improve their forecasting abilities.
Mentioned by
Mentioned in 41 episodes
Mentioned by Michael Mauboussin for a quote about beliefs as testable hypotheses.
769 snips
#659: Michael Mauboussin — How Great Investors Make Decisions, Harnessing The Wisdom (vs. Madness) of Crowds, Lessons from Race Horses, and More
Mentioned by 
Jason Calacanis as a book that explains how to become a forecaster and emphasizes writing down decisions.
Jason Calacanis as a book that explains how to become a forecaster and emphasizes writing down decisions.
135 snips
What's Next for AI Infrastructure with Amin Vahdat | AI Basics with Google Cloud
Mentioned by 
Annie Duke as the book of Phil Tetlock, who asked her to do some research on counterfactual forecasting with him.
Annie Duke as the book of Phil Tetlock, who asked her to do some research on counterfactual forecasting with him.
133 snips
Annie Duke Thinks You Should Quit (Update)
Mentioned by 
Tomasz Tunguz when discussing the importance of understanding conditional probabilities in evaluating AI companies.
Tomasz Tunguz when discussing the importance of understanding conditional probabilities in evaluating AI companies.
129 snips
20VC: Who Wins in AI; Startup vs Incumbent, Infrastructure vs Application Layer, Bundled vs Unbundled Providers | From 150 LP Meetings to Closing $230M for Fund I; The Fundraising Process, What Worked, What Didn't and Lessons Learned with Tomasz Tunguz
Mentioned by 
Charles Duhigg as a book that emphasizes recording decision-making processes for improvement.
Charles Duhigg as a book that emphasizes recording decision-making processes for improvement.
69 snips
The power of super communication with Charles Duhigg | E1938
Mentioned by Annie Duke as the source of the quote "The opposite of a great virtue is also a great virtue."
Annie Duke as the source of the quote "The opposite of a great virtue is also a great virtue."
44 snips
Annie Duke on the Power of Quitting
