"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

Scaling Forecasting: AI Forecasting Tournaments & the Road to Epistemic Security, with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus

Aug 28, 2024
Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus, is a leader in AI-powered forecasting and prediction markets. He shares insights on how AI is transforming decision-making with more accurate predictions. The conversation highlights the launch of Metaculus's AI forecasting tournament, the role of community collaboration, and the challenges surrounding AGI timelines. Turan emphasizes actionable forecasting techniques for societal issues, showcasing the balance between competition and collaboration in AI forecasting tournaments. This helps improve accuracy while engaging diverse perspectives.
01:56:21

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • AI is transforming forecasting markets, promising to outperform human forecasters through advanced predictive capabilities and collective intelligence.
  • Metaculous is launching a unique AI forecasting benchmark tournament to evaluate AI models against human forecasts and community predictions.

Deep dives

Introduction to 1-100 and Cognitive Revolution

The episode introduces a new series called 1-100 on the Turpentine network, focused on interviews with founders of rapidly growing companies. The show targets listeners contemplating career changes or wanting insights into tech industry trends. In this context, companies such as Modolabs, Clay, and Mercor are highlighted for their innovative growth stories. The series promises an inside look into how these founders built their products and company cultures, aiming to equip listeners with valuable career insights.

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