Nathan explores the cutting-edge world of AI-powered forecasting with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus. In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, we discuss how AI is revolutionizing prediction markets, the potential for AI to outperform human forecasters, and Metaculus's ambitious new AI forecasting benchmark tournament. Join us for an insightful conversation about the future of decision-making and collective intelligence.
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CHAPTERS:
(00:00:00) About the Show
(00:00:22) Sponsor: WorkOS
(00:01:22) About the Episode
(00:04:47) Introduction and Background
(00:08:42) Deger's Journey to Forecasting
(00:13:06) Current State of Forecasting
(00:20:23) Sponsors: 80,000 Hours | Brave
(00:22:55) Overview of Metaculous
(00:23:30) AI Forecasting Research Papers
(00:35:44) Sponsors: Omneky | Squad
(00:37:31) AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
(00:44:01) Improving Forecasting Accuracy
(00:51:56) Scoring System and Tournament Rules
(01:04:17) AI Forecasting Benchmark Series Details
(01:11:03) Tournament Structure and Participation
(01:17:07) Consistency in AI Forecasting
(01:34:36) Risks and Challenges in Forecasting
(01:42:43) Consensus Illusion and Policy Making
(01:53:55) Outro
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