Bent Flyvbjerg & Dan Gardner discuss megaproject failures like California's high speed rail. Explore why 99.5% of projects go over budget or time, contrasting success of Sydney Opera House. Dive into challenges and planning errors with insights on project complexity and political opposition

Dan Gardner is an international best-selling author known for his insights on forecasting and decision-making. He discusses the essence of probabilistic thinking and how it can empower board members. Gardner emphasizes the importance of epistemic humility, warning against the pitfalls of past successes and the common underestimation of luck. He also explores strategies for effective feedback on decisions and assessing a prospective member's judgment. Additionally, he highlights the significance of using real-world data to navigate budgeting challenges.

Dan Gardner, an international best-selling author known for his works on risk and organizational effectiveness, shares insights on making boards more effective. He discusses how modular thinking, akin to LEGO construction, can enhance project success. Gardner emphasizes the need to prioritize climate risk in board agendas and contrasts the roles of intuition and analytical thinking in decision-making. He also explores the psychological effects of heuristics on risk perception and highlights the importance of maintaining intellectual humility in governance.

In this episode, Dan Gardner, an expert on risk assessment, discusses the radical mismatch between intuitive risk perception and actual risks. He highlights the study of 20,000 forecasts, the concept of superforecasters, and how they outperform experts and algorithms. Gardner emphasizes the importance of critical thinking, probabilistic thinking, and intellectual humility in making accurate predictions and reducing major dangers in life.

In this insightful discussion, Dan Gardner, a New York Times best-selling author and senior fellow at the University of Ottawa, reveals how our intuitive sense of risk often misaligns with reality. He explores the surprising ineffectiveness of many experts in predicting outcomes and highlights the extraordinary abilities of 'superforecasters.' Gardner emphasizes the importance of intellectual humility and critical thinking in navigating uncertainties, offering practical strategies to improve decision-making and reduce real-life risks.